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Heat pump vs gas furnace: which costs less to run?

A heat pump moves heat instead of making it, so it delivers two to more than three units of heat for every unit of electricity. Whether that beats burning gas depends on two prices and one climate. Here is the math at each state's electricity rate (EIA, August 2026) and gas price, and a quick test you can run with your own bills.

By Rodrigo Saran Gomes · Updated 2026-10-06

The short answer

Divide your electricity rate in cents per kWh by your gas price in dollars per therm. If the result is below the break-even number for your climate zone in the table further down, a heat pump costs less to run than a 92% gas furnace. If it's above, gas wins on running cost.

At national average prices, 18.2¢/kWh and $1.48 a therm, gas is cheaper to heat with in a typical zone 4 climate. At each state's own prices and climate, the heat pump comes out ahead across most of the South, Southeast and Southwest and in the Pacific Northwest, where electricity is cheap compared with gas or winters are mild. Gas wins across the Northeast, the Midwest, the colder Mountain states, California and Alaska, where electricity is expensive, gas is cheap, winters are long, or all three.

That's running cost only. A heat pump also replaces your air conditioner, and the purchase price, the age of your current equipment and whether you'd drop the gas meter altogether all change the full answer.

How the comparison works

Both systems are compared on the price of one million BTU (MMBtu) of heat delivered into the house, the same method the heat pump vs furnace calculator uses:

  • Gas furnace: one therm is 100,000 BTU, so 1 MMBtu takes 10 therms of heat. A 92% AFUE furnace has to burn 10 ÷ 0.92 = 10.87 therms to deliver it.
  • Heat pump: 1 MMBtu is 293.07 kWh of heat. A heat pump with a seasonal COP of 2.8 delivers 2.8 units of heat per unit of electricity, so it needs 293.07 ÷ 2.8 = 104.7 kWh.

COP drops as the outdoor temperature falls, because there's less heat to pull out of colder air. That is why the seasonal COP in our model depends on your state's climate zone:

Climate zone Seasonal COP Heat pump wins if ¢/kWh ÷ $/therm is below (92% furnace) Below (80% furnace)
1 3.6 13.4 15.4
2 3.4 12.6 14.5
3 3.1 11.5 13.2
4 2.8 10.4 11.9
5 2.5 9.3 10.7
6 2.3 8.5 9.8
7 2.0 7.4 8.5

The break-even number is COP × 1,000 ÷ (AFUE × 293.07). For example, in zone 5 with gas at $1.50 a therm, the heat pump wins whenever electricity costs less than 1.50 × 9.3 = 13.9¢ per kWh.

The COP values are Home Kilowatt model values for a typical modern heat pump over a whole heating season, backup heat included. Cold-climate models do better than this in zones 5 to 7; an old or poorly installed unit does worse.

A worked example: Georgia vs Minnesota

Take a 2,000 sq ft house with average insulation. The calculator estimates its yearly heating load as square feet × 0.35 × heating degree-days × 24.

Georgia (zone 3, 2,800 heating degree-days) needs about 47 MMBtu a year. One MMBtu costs $15.03 from a heat pump (COP 3.1, at 15.9¢/kWh) and $21.41 from a 92% furnace (at $1.97 a therm). For the year, that is about 4,450 kWh, $707.07, for the heat pump against about 511 therms, $1,006.67, for the furnace. Electricity is cheap relative to gas in Georgia, so the heat pump wins clearly.

Minnesota (zone 6, 8,000 heating degree-days) needs about 134 MMBtu, nearly three times as much. One MMBtu costs $21.92 from a heat pump (COP 2.3, at 17.2¢/kWh) and $11.52 from the furnace (at $1.06 a therm). The year comes to about 17,130 kWh, $2,945.50, against about 1,461 therms, $1,548.66. Cheap gas and a low winter COP make the furnace the cheaper option to run, and because the load is so big, the gap in dollars is large.

Yearly cost in a dozen states

Same house in every state: 2,000 sq ft, average insulation, 92% furnace, heat pump at the zone's seasonal COP. The kWh and therms come from each state's heating degree-days; the dollars use the state's current prices.

State Zone Heat pump, kWh Heat pump, per year Gas, therms Gas furnace, per year
Texas 2 2,896 $460.75 365 $682.55
Georgia 3 4,447 $707.07 511 $1,006.67
North Carolina 3 5,400 $807.30 621 $981.18
Washington 4 8,440 $1,234.77 877 $1,490.90
Tennessee 4 6,330 $849.49 657 $748.98
Virginia 4 7,034 $1,240.80 730 $1,182.60
US average 4 7,913 $1,437.00 822 $1,216.56
Ohio 5 11,226 $2,175.60 1,041 $1,394.94
Pennsylvania 5 11,029 $2,401.01 1,023 $1,483.35
New York 5 10,832 $3,103.37 1,004 $1,706.80
Minnesota 6 17,125 $2,945.50 1,461 $1,548.66
Maine 6 15,841 $5,086.55 1,351 $2,472.33

Two things stand out. Washington is a zone 4 state like Tennessee and Virginia, but its cheap hydro power keeps the heat pump ahead. And New York and Maine have heat pump costs far above their furnace costs not because their winters are the coldest, but because electricity there costs far more than the national average while gas costs only somewhat more. Climate decides the COP; prices decide the winner.

Where heat pumps win and where they don't

At each state's prices and climate, a heat pump beats a 92% gas furnace on running cost in roughly a third of states, nearly all of them in the South, the Southeast and the Southwest, plus Washington and Oregon. In states such as Kentucky, Oklahoma, Kansas and Virginia, the two are close enough that a monthly rate change or a better-than-average heat pump can flip the result.

The picture changes with what you'd be replacing:

  • An older 80% furnace. The break-even rises by about 15%, enough to move a few borderline states to the heat pump side. Most northern states still favor gas.
  • Propane or heating oil. At our reference fuel prices, a heat pump costs less to run than an 85% propane furnace in every state. Compare in the heat pump vs propane or oil calculator.
  • Electric resistance heat (baseboards or an electric furnace). A heat pump always wins, because any COP above 1 beats resistance heat. In the seasonal COPs above, it uses between about a quarter and a half of the electricity.
  • A dual-fuel setup. A heat pump paired with a gas furnace that takes over in the coldest hours captures the heat pump's high COP in mild weather and gas in deep cold.

What this comparison leaves out

  • The fixed gas charge. If going all-electric lets you close the gas account, you also stop paying the gas utility's fixed monthly charge. Add that to the heat pump's side.
  • Cooling. A heat pump is also your air conditioner. If you'd replace the AC anyway, the real comparison is heat pump against furnace plus a new AC.
  • Backup heat. Resistance strips that kick in during cold snaps or after deep thermostat setbacks lower the real seasonal COP. Keep setbacks small with a heat pump; the thermostat setback calculator shows why.
  • Your house. Insulation changes both systems' costs in proportion, but it changes the size and price of the heat pump you'd buy. Size it in the heat pump size calculator.

2026 note: The federal 25C credit for heat pumps ended for installations after December 31, 2025. Check your utility and state for rebates, which vary by program.

Run it for your house

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